“Small numbers”

#covid-19 #coronavirus #stayhomesavelives

This is no way any form of scientific research, just my own observations over the years, people have a really small attention span and a “if I can’t see it then it doesn’t mean me” mentality. This can best be observed on Motorways when the speed limit is temporarily reduced because of an issue ahead, people won’t reduce their speeds, they keep going until they can actually see what the issue is then they reduce their speeds.
In some ways this lockdown is the same, people will soon start to go back out again, in fact data published by COBR yesterday is showing an increase in vehicle movements.

 I honestly think the problem is people can only really visualize linear concepts as opposed to exponential ones
Linear 1+1=2+1=3+1=4+1=5
Exponential 1+1=2+2=4+4=8+8=16

In the linear scale the number is a “small number” growing at a steady rate

In the exponential scale it starts as a “small number” but suddenly in the same number of steps as the linear scale the result is 3x greater.

That’s what catches people out with COVID-19 the “small number” and linear thinking.

Each day the number of dead looks fairly “small number” on a linear scale but if you extrapolate the same data on exponential scale we are looking at 10,000 or more dead in just about a week from now.

Steve Woodmore

One Comment

  1. I’ve reduced my speed on motorways before now, only to find there was no “issue” up ahead at all. Not saying to criticise, just pointing out the motorway sign controllers can be a bit “slack” in that department etc.

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