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Exit strategies

  1. Heard Immunity
  2. Inoculation
  3. Mutation

Right now, today, there is little or no discussion of an “exit strategy” from this current situation. What is it? and why do we need it?

An “exit strategy” is the way to restore normality, it’s a benchmark and a way forward, a moment in time where it’s “safe” for us to reboot our lives and society.

This will come when we have beaten this virus, but the virus isn’t say like a fly where a quick squirt from a can will kill it, not it’s far more than that, the only way to “kill” it is to stop it spreading.

There are 3 benchmarks for that

Heard immunity.

So called because it requires 60% or more of the population to have caught and become immune from this virus, once that happens the virus will struggle to find new hosts and will gradually fade. The problem here is that “social distancing” and self -isolation are both polar opposites to heard immunity, the more we slow down the spread of the virus the longer it takes to develop a heard immunity.

Inoculation

A vaccination to make our own bodies immune systems recognise and kill this virus thus bringing about heard immunity, this we are currently tol is at least 12-18 months away.

Mutation

The virus will mutate into something less harmful or less contagious, the problem there is that it has already mutated twice, the first time to jump from animal to human and the 2nd time to jump from human to human, each mutation deadlier than the last. So yes it could mutate, it could become pacified or it could get more virulent there is no way to know what will happen or even when it will happen.

For me I think the best exit strategy is the simplest one, as people recover from this and have an immunity from it they should then start to go about their normal business, the first recoveries have already happened. The trouble there is that we need a way to identify and instantly test/prove we are immune or selfish people will do what selfish people always do and spread the disease.

Steve Woodmore

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